As experts point to a lack of passion for the Biden administration brand and the Democratic Party in general as issues, Democrats' advantage in voter registration has decreased in three crucial battleground states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. This is concerning for Vice President Harris.

Republicans have significantly increased their voter registration lead in Arizona, another crucial battleground state, which may make it more difficult for Harris to win a state that President Biden narrowly won in 2020.

Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin are among the other presidential battleground states that do not have party-based voter registration. The Harris campaign has shifted to the center on issues like tax policy and fracking, which may be explained by the shift in voter registration away from Democrats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Although Democrats' advantage in voter registration has diminished in Nevada, Harris still leads former President Trump by a significant margin in polling averages, in contrast to those other states.

Democrats have lost over 300,000 voters between 2020 and 2024, while Republicans have gained roughly 70,000. According to Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania, the number of nonaffiliated independent voters has increased by roughly 83,000 to 85,000.

Harris leads Trump by one point in Pennsylvania, according to recent polls, but the Hill/Decision Desk HQ estimates that both candidates have an identical chance of winning the Keystone State.  According to David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, Democrats' advantage over Republicans in Pennsylvania's voter registration was over 666,000 in 2020, but by 2024, it had decreased to 354,000.

According to Paleologos, the Democratic Party's advantage in North Carolina's voter registration has decreased from 393,000 in 2020 to about 130,000 in 2024.  "Over the past four years, there has been a broad shift away from being registered as a Democrat," Paleologos told The Hill.

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